Yen falls as Japan forms new government, supporting Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Expectations that Japan's incoming prime minister will pursue drastic stimulus policies to drive the country's economy out of deflation helped weaken the yen and underpinned the Nikkei on Wednesday, while Asian shares were capped in thin holiday trade.

Singapore <.ftsti>, Malaysia <.klse>, Indonesia <.jkse>, the Philippines <.psi> and South Korea <.ks11> were closed on Tuesday for the Christmas holiday, reopening on Wednesday.

Hong Kong and Australia remain closed on Wednesday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> inched up 0.1 percent, after rising 0.3 percent the previous day on the back of a surge in Shanghai shares <.ssec> to five-month highs and a jump in Taiwan shares <.twii>.

Shinzo Abe, who won a landslide victory in an election earlier this month, will be sworn in as premier on Wednesday, when he is also expected to appoint his cabinet. He is prescribing a mix of aggressive monetary policy easing and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and rein in the strong yen.

He has kept up pressure on the Bank of Japan to deliver much stronger monetary easing policies and called for a 2 percent inflation target to beat deep-rooted deflation, pushing the yen to a 20-month low of 85.08 yen on trading platform EBS early on Wednesday.

Minutes of the BOJ's policy-setting meeting in November showed on Wednesday that some board members said the central bank must act decisively, without ruling out any policy options, if the outlook for the economy and prices worsens further.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> opened up 0.5 percent, after recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday and ending up 1.4 percent. <.t/>

"The market is overbought, so the Nikkei may not rise sharply, but 'Abe trades' may invite some buying," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities, adding that if the dollar trades above 85 yen, investors are likely to chase the Nikkei higher to near 10,200.

Aside from the Japanese factor, the dollar was also expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

"With the exception of the U.S. fiscal talks, there is no particular issue that could dampen investor appetite to any great degree," said Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Woori Investment & Securities.

Activity is likely to remain subdued, with volume low and without major economic news.

Later in the session, Thailand will release trade data, which is expected to show exports in November posting very high annual growth as a result of low levels last year reflecting the damage from the flooding.

South Korea's key consumer sentiment index held steady in December from November and stood below the neutral point for a fifth consecutive month, the central bank said on Wednesday, diminishing hopes of a quick economic rebound.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Joyce Lee in Seoul; Editing by Daniel Magnowski)

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Anatoly Shesteryuk, Former Russian Official, Arrested

MOSCOW — The police said Tuesday that they had arrested a former official of a federal agency that manages state enterprises on charges of stealing $330 million in property, a theft noteworthy even by the standards of Russian public corruption.

The official, whom the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper identified as Anatoly Shesteryuk, worked for the Federal Property Management Agency and was in charge of companies in Moscow owned by the federal government.

Most of Russia’s profitable public companies were privatized in the immediate post-Soviet period, creating a capitalist economy and overnight billionaires. The state companies that were not privatized were of dubious commercial value; many limped into the new century barely profitable.

These companies were the focus of the corruption investigation that ensnared Mr. Shesteryuk and at least two other co-conspirators, said the Main Economic Crime Directorate of the Interior Ministry, which divulged details of the case in statements published by several Russian newspapers.

To pull off the plot, the investigators said, Mr. Shesteryuk and the other suspects, who were directors of private companies, worked from a database of failing government enterprises — the worse off, the better.

Mr. Shesteryuk, the investigators said, would arrange for the managers of these failing companies, like gas stations and other businesses with substantial real estate holdings, to take out loans using their land as collateral, and drawn from a financial company that was also part of the plot. When, predictably, the struggling enterprise was unable to repay the loan, the land was seized in bankruptcy court, and the conspirators — who included the managers of the failing companies — would divide the proceeds.

The plot led to the theft of more than 100 parcels of state property worth more than 10 billion rubles, or about $330 million, the Komsomolskaya Pravda article quoted an unnamed investigator as saying.

The investigators said they were looking into whether the judges in the Treteysk court, where the bankruptcies were processed, were complicit in approving the title changes.

The plot, though eyebrow-raising for being so lucrative, was not unprecedented for corruption cases here.

Sergei L. Magnitsky, a lawyer representing a hedge fund, uncovered what he said was a plot against the Russian government in which taxes paid by at least two investment firms were stolen. Some estimates put the amount involved at more than a half-billion dollars.

Mr. Magnitsky, who was arrested in November 2008 as he tried to expose the fraud and died in prison, said about $230 million in taxes paid by his employer, the Hermitage Capital hedge fund, had been stolen. Collusive lawsuits in Russia’s flawed court system were also a factor in that case.

In 2010, a leaked audit suggested that as much as $4 billion had gone missing in a contracting fraud involving a pipeline project to connect Siberian oil fields with a refinery in China.

In neither case were any senior figures prosecuted.

But arrests have been made in more recent corruption cases. Since Vladimir V. Putin was elected to a third term as president last spring, the police have made half a dozen high-profile arrests for corruption. In November, Mr. Putin ousted his minister of defense in a corruption scandal, and the police have arrested housing officials in St. Petersburg and state telephone company executives in Moscow.

Selective prosecution of corruption cases, Kremlinologists say, serves to purge the elite of figures who have fallen from favor or whose loyalty has been called into question.

Removing the most visible signs of corruption and making high-profile arrests are also seen as a way to mollify the anger of Russians — who must pay bribes in many ordinary situations, as when they visit an emergency room — lest they embrace the opposition.

Also on Tuesday, Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev fired a deputy minister of regional development who is also director of the federal agency for housing maintenance and utilities, the Interfax news service reported, without providing an explanation for the dismissal.

And far to the east, in the Siberian city of Yakutsk, the police accused a regional official in the same housing agency of taking a $9,000 bribe from a contractor.

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Tajikistan blocks scores of websites as election looms

DUSHANBE (Reuters) – Tajikistan blocked access to more than 100 websites on Tuesday, in what a government source said was a dress rehearsal for a crackdown on online dissent before next year’s election when President Imomali Rakhmon will again run for office.

Rakhmon, a 60-year-old former head of a Soviet cotton farm, has ruled the impoverished Central Asian nation of 7.5 million for 20 years. He has overseen constitutional amendments that allow him to seek a new seven-year term in November 2013.

The Internet remains the main platform where Tajiks can air grievances and criticize government policies at a time when the circulation of local newspapers is tiny and television is tightly controlled by the state.

Tajikistan’s state communications service blocked 131 local and foreign Internet sites “for technical and maintenance works”.

“Most probably, these works will be over in a week,” Tatyana Kholmurodova, deputy head of the service, told Reuters. She declined to give the reason for the work, which cover even some sites with servers located abroad.

The blocked resources included Russia‘s popular social networking sites www.my.mail.ru and VKontakte (www.vk.com), as well as Tajik news site TJKnews.com and several local blogs.

“The government has ordered the communications service to test their ability to block dozens of sites at once, should such a need arise,” a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

“It is all about November 2013,” he said, in a clear reference to the presidential election.

Other blocked websites included a Ukrainian soccer site, a Tajik rap music site, several local video-sharing sites and a pornography site.

VOLATILE NATION

Predominantly Muslim Tajikistan, which lies on a major transit route for Afghan drugs to Europe and Russia, remains volatile after a 1992-97 civil war in which Rakhmon’s Moscow-backed secular government clashed with Islamist guerrillas.

Rakhmon justifies his authoritarian methods by saying he wants to oppose radical Islam. But some of his critics argue repression and poverty push many young Tajiks to embrace it.

Tighter Internet controls echo measures taken by other former Soviet republics of Central Asia, where authoritarian rulers are wary of the role social media played in revolutions in the Arab world and mass protests in Russia.

The government this year set up a volunteer-run body to monitor Internet use and reprimand those who openly criticize Rakhmon and other officials.

In November, Tajikistan blocked access to Facebook, saying it was spreading “mud and slander” about its veteran leader.

The authorities unblocked Facebook after concern was expressed by the United States and European Union, the main providers of humanitarian aid for Tajikistan, where almost a half of the population lives in abject poverty.

Asomiddin Asoyev, head of Tajikistan’s association of Internet providers, said authorities were trying to create an illusion that there were no problems in Tajik society by silencing online criticism.

“This is self-deception,” he told Reuters. “The best way of resolving a problem is its open discussion with civil society.”

Moscow-based Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov told Reuters that Rakhmon’s authoritarian measures could lead to a backlash against the president in the election. “Trying to position itself as the main guarantor of stability through repression against Islamist activists, the Dushanbe government is actually achieving the reverse – people’s trust in it is falling,” he said.

(Writing by Dmitry Solovyov; Editing by Pravin Char)

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Start of "Santa Claus rally" dampened by "cliff' worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as caution over the potential for volatility driven by worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" dampened enthusiasm at the start of a seasonally strong period for equities.

Investors are betting Congress will reach a deal to avert most of the austerity measures due to come into force at the start of next year. That has led to the best year for stocks since the post-financial crisis rebound. But those gains may be quickly reversed if a deal is not reached soon.

The S&P 500 index posted its biggest drop in more than a month on Friday as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain traction on Thursday night.

Sharp moves like that highlight how headlines from Washington can whipsaw markets, especially during the thinly traded period over the Christmas holiday.

Still, with the S&P 500 up 0.7 percent in December and on course for its strongest month since September, some analysts are predicting that stocks will find their footing during a market seasonality known as the "Santa Claus rally."

"Right now we've seen some very constructive action in the market so I think that bodes well for this being a positive seasonal 'Santa' period over the coming seven days," said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at The PrinceRidge Group.

He noted an all-time high in the NYSE advance-decline line, which compares advancing and declining stocks, as indication of strong participation in the rally off November lows.

"Pull-backs are buying opportunities," said Wald. "There has been really great participation on this move, a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks behaving well, pushing out to the upside; we're seeing some good leadership from offensive sectors of the market as well."

A high ratio of advancing stocks to declining issues shows there is broad participation across the equity market.

The Santa seasonality covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during this period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 51.76 points, or 0.39 percent, to 13,139.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 3.49 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,426.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 8.41 points, or 0.28 percent, to 3,012.60.

The S&P 500 is up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. election. The yearly gain would be the best since 2009.

Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.

"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - 'cliff' talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.

"You can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do," he said.

Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as President Barack Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.

Trading volume was muted, with U.S. equity markets closing at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas Day holiday on Tuesday.

In addition, a number of European markets operated on a shortened session, with other markets closed.

U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge from this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares fell 1.8 percent to $25.25.

Herbalife Ltd dipped 4.4 percent to $26.06 after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic adviser. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.

Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.8 percent to $65.01 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.

(Reporting By Edward Krudy; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Dan Grebler)

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As Envoy Meets Syria’s Assad, Russia Signals New Pessimism

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Lakhdar Brahimi, the special envoy seeking an end to the Syria crisis, held an urgent meeting with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Monday as new signs emerged that Russia, Mr. Assad’s most important foreign backer, was moving forward with plans to evacuate Russian diplomats and other expatriates.

Sana/European Pressphoto Agency

Syria's Arab News Agency, SANA, provided a photograph of President Bashar al-Assad meeting with the international envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi on Monday.

The New York Times

A Syrian warplane was reported to have conducted airstrikes that killed dozens of people in Hilfaya, according to antigovernment activists in the area.

Mr. Brahimi, the Algerian statesman who has been the special Syria representative for the United Nations and Arab League for three months, did not specify the substance or tone of his discussion with Mr. Assad, describing it only in general terms in brief remarks afterward.

“The president expressed his view regarding the current situation, and I briefed him on the meetings I had in several capitals with officials from different countries inside and outside the region,” Mr. Brahimi told reporters, according to an account posted on the United Nations’ Web site. “I also told him about the steps that, in my view, need to be taken to help the Syrian people find a way out of this crisis.”

But one member of Syria’s political opposition who said he had spoken with Mr. Brahimi’s aides said the envoy had intended to advocate a plan for a negotiated solution first proposed in June. The opposition member, Mohamed Sarmini, said the proposal would temporarily leave Mr. Assad in power, but curb his authority — an arrangement that some members of the opposition had previously rejected as inadequate.

Another prominent opposition member, who requested anonymity because of the delicacy of the talks, said he understood that Mr. Brahimi had been intending to deliver a “final proposal” to Mr. Assad to leave with members of his intelligence and security services.

Mr. Brahimi was scheduled to meet with opposition members in Damascus on Tuesday, according to Hassan Abdel Azim, a longtime domestic dissident who took a favorable view of the envoy’s visit.

“We are going to listen first to his proposals,” he said. “We support the Brahimi initiative, and we don’t say it has failed at all.”

The envoy arrived on Sunday as new violence gripped the country, particularly in west-central Syria, where rebel groups are trying to capture territory around the strategic city of Hama. Dozens of people were killed Sunday when a Syrian warplane dropped bombs on a bakery on the town of Halfaya, killing at least 58 people — all but three of them men — according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an antigovernment group based in London that maintains a network of contacts inside Syria.

In the signs of the growing perils facing civilians in Hama Province, a jihadist rebel brigade, the Nusra Front, along with other rebel groups, stormed parts of Maan village, where many of the residents belong to the minority Alawite sect, according to the Syrian Observatory. In recent days, some rebel groups have threatened to retaliate against Christian and Alawite villages where government forces have taken up positions.

Top Russian diplomats said that Mr. Brahimi, perhaps trying to broker a deal that would help ease out Mr. Assad, may visit Russia as soon as this week. Russian officials have sought to distance themselves from Mr. Assad in recent weeks as the nearly two-year conflict in Syria has worsened, although they still strongly oppose military intervention in favor of a negotiated transition. Some Russian expatriates working in Syria were abducted this month.

Russian security officials were quoted in Monday’s edition of Kommersant, a Russian daily newspaper, as saying that diplomats in Damascus would be evacuated with the help of special forces, if necessary. The authorities are also prepared to dispatch 100 officers from a special armed unit of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, called “Screen,” which was last used to evacuate Russian diplomats from Baghdad in 2003. The newspaper quoted an intelligence source saying the officers were “ready for a transfer to Damascus, however, the order from above has not been given.”

Ruslan R. Aliyev, an analyst with the Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technologies, a defense research group based in Moscow, said renewed discussion of evacuations by Russia’s Foreign Ministry reflected what he described as Moscow’s deeply pessimistic prognosis for the region..

Reporting was contributed by Ellen Barry from Moscow, Hwaida Saad from Beirut, and Rick Gladstone from New York.

Kareem Fahim reported from Beirut, and Hala Droubi from Jidda, Saudi Arabia. Ellen Barry contributed reporting from Moscow, Hwaida Saad from Beirut, and Rick Gladstone from New York.

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Find room for God in fast-paced world, pope says on Christmas eve

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) – Pope Benedict, leading the world’s Roman Catholics into Christmas, on Monday urged people to find room for God in their fast-paced lives filled with the latest technological gadgets.

The 85-year-old pope, marking the eighth Christmas season of his pontificate, celebrated a solemn Christmas Eve mass in St Peter’s Basilica, during which he appealed for a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and an end to the civil war in Syria.

At the mass for some 10,000 people in the basilica and broadcast to millions of others on television, the pope wove his homily around the theme of God’s place in today’s modern world.

“Do we have time and space for him? Do we not actually turn away God himself? We begin to do so when we have no time for him,” said the pope, wearing gold and white vestments.

“The faster we can move, the more efficient our time-saving appliances become, the less time we have. And God? The question of God never seems urgent. Our time is already completely full,” he said.

The leader of the world’s some 1.2 billion Roman Catholics said societies had reached the point where many people’s thinking processes did not leave any room even for the existence of God.

“Even if he seems to knock at the door of our thinking, he has to be explained away. If thinking is to be taken seriously, it must be structured in such a way that the ‘God hypothesis’ becomes superfluous,” he said.

“There is no room for him. Not even in our feelings and desires is there any room for him. We want ourselves. We want what we can seize hold of, we want happiness that is within our reach, we want our plans and purposes to succeed. We are so ‘full’ of ourselves that there is no room left for God.”

PEACE CANDLE

Bells inside and outside the basilica chimed when the pope said “Glory to God in the Highest,” the words the gospels say the angels sang at the moment of Jesus’ birth.

Earlier on Monday the pope appeared at the window of his apartments in the apostolic palace and lit a peace candle, as a larger-than-life nativity scene was unveiled in St Peter’s Square below.

Reflecting on the gospel account of Jesus born in a stable because there was no room for Mary and Joseph in the inn, he said when people find no room for God in their lives, they will soon find no room for others.

“Let us ask the Lord that we may become vigilant for his presence, that we may hear how softly yet insistently he knocks at the door of our being and willing.

“Let us ask that we may make room for him within ourselves, that we may recognise him also in those through whom he speaks to us: children, the suffering, the abandoned, those who are excluded and the poor of this world,” he said.

He asked for prayers for the people who “live and suffer” in the Holy Land today.

The pope called for peace among Israelis and Palestinians and for the people of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and prayed that “Christians in those lands where our faith was born may be able to continue living there, that Christians and Muslims may build up their countries side-by-side in God’s peace.”

The Vatican is concerned about the exodus from the Middle East of Christians, many of whom leave because they fear for their safety. Christians now comprise five percent of the population of the region, down from 20 percent a century ago.

According to some estimates, the current population of 12 million Christians in the Middle East could halve by 2020 if security and birth rates continue to decline.

At noon (1100 GMT/6 AM ET) the pope will deliver his twice-yearly “Urbi et Orbi” (to the city and the world) blessing and message from the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica.

(Reporting By Philip Pullella; Editing by Myra MacDonald)

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Jack Klugman, Odd Couple and Quincy, M.E. Star, Dies

By Stephen M. Silverman

12/24/2012 at 07:35 PM EST

Jack Klugman, The Odd Couple and Quincy, M.E. star beloved by TV, movie and theater audiences for five decades, died suddenly in Los Angeles on Monday, one of his sons told the Associated Press. He was 90.

"He had a great life and he enjoyed every moment of it and he would encourage others to do the same," son Adam Klugman said of his father, who had lost his voice to throat cancer in 1980 and then taught himself to speak again through breath control.

With Tony Randall on ABC's adaptation of the smash Neil Simon play and movie of the '60s, Klugman played sloppy Oscar Madison from 1970 to 1975 to Randall's Felix Unger, and though they really were an odd couple, offscreen they were adoring friends. Randall died in 2004.

Born in Philadelphia, Klugman started acting in college, and his film credits included the all-star courtroom drama 12 Angry Men. On Broadway he starred as the love interest Herbie in the original production of the quintessential backstage musical, Gypsy, with the legendary Ethel Merman.

Klugman's wife, actress-comedian Brett Somers, costarred on The Odd Couple as his ex-wife Blanche. According to the AP, they married in 1953 and had two sons, Adam and David, and had been estranged for years at the time of her death in 2007.

Besides their sons, Klugman is survived Peggy Crosby, whom he married in February 2008.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Asian shares steady, U.S. budget concerns weigh

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares steadied in quiet pre-holiday trade after a slump late last week, with markets cautious over whether the United States can avoid a fiscal crisis.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.6 percent after falling to a near two-week low on Friday when House of Representatives Speak John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan, raising fears the U.S. may not be able to avert the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start January 1.

The White House on Friday tried to rescue stalled talks but there was little headway as lawmakers and President Barack Obama abandoned Washington for Christmas.

Many market players still expect both sides to reach a compromise before the end-year deadline but heightening tensions were likely to stifle trade already slowed by the holidays.

U.S. Treasuries gained a safety bid on Friday from fiscal cliff worries, which put many investors on edge and drove down global equities markets, the euro and oil futures.

Australian shares <.axjo> rose 0.4 percent early on Monday, but trade was extremely thin, with Monday's session shortened ahead of the two-day Christmas holiday and many players already out on vacation.

South Korean shares opened up 0.2 percent.

"Investors will cut positions in response to the U.S. budget uncertainty, as the year-end deadline for a fiscal deal is just around the corner," said Lee Jae-hoon, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities.

"A last-minute agreement, if it is reached, will be cheered by investors. But the deal looks ... difficult," Lee said.

Japanese financial markets are closed for a public holiday and will resume trading on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei average <.n225> dropped 1 percent on Friday to close below the key 10,000-mark it reclaimed for the first time since early April on December 19. <.t/>

The dollar inched up 0.2 percent to 84.43 yen, having fallen below 84 yen on Friday. The dollar hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on December 19.

The yen has been pressured by expectations the Bank of Japan will be pressured to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year as incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe has demanded bolder action by the central bank to bring Japan out of decades-long deflation.

Currency speculators increased their bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. Bets against the yen fell after reaching a more than five-year peak.

The euro stood steady around $1.3184.

In Italy, Mario Monti announced on Sunday he would consider seeking a second term as Italian prime minister if approached by allies committed to backing his austere brand of reforms. Monti resigned on Friday but has faced growing calls to seek a second term at a parliamentary election on February 24-25.

At stake is the leadership of the world's eighth largest economy, where recession and public debt of more than 2 trillion ($2.6 billion) have aggravated investor concerns about growth and stability in the euro zone.

Italy faces a huge bond redemption in the first quarter of 2013 and its failure to secure funding could refuel concerns about sovereign financing not only in Italy but also similarly indebted Spain, hurting sentiment towards the euro.

(Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul)

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