Mindy McCready: Under Police Scrutiny at Time of Suicide?















02/18/2013 at 06:00 PM EST







Mindy McCready and David Wilson


Courtesy Mindy McCready


When Mindy McCready talked to police in recent weeks, her account of how her boyfriend came to be found with a fatal gunshot wound to the head concerned police, a law enforcement source tells PEOPLE.

"At first, she said she hadn't heard the gunshot because the TV was too loud. Then she said she had heard the gunshot," the source says. "So obviously there were a lot of questions, and the Sheriff was asking for clarification."

But before investigators could re-interview her, the long-troubled country singer also would die under eerily similar circumstances, her body discovered at the same Heber Springs, Ark., house just feet away from where David Wilson died.

McCready's death was blamed on what "appears to be a single self-inflicted gunshot wound," the Cleburne County Sheriff's Office said in a statement.

This differed from how the sheriff characterized Wilson's case. His cause and manner of death still have not been established by the coroner. It was McCready's publicist, and not a law enforcement official, who announced that Wilson had died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

After Wilson's death, McCready, 37, spoke to investigators three times, but they didn't feel as if they were through with her.

"At no point did [police] tell her she was a suspect, and she wasn't officially one," says the source. "But she knew that some of her answers didn't stand up to questioning. She was very cooperative, but she just wasn't making a lot of sense."


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Hip implants a bit more likely to fail in women


CHICAGO (AP) — Hip replacements are slightly more likely to fail in women than in men, according to one of the largest studies of its kind in U.S. patients. The risk of the implants failing is low, but women were 29 percent more likely than men to need a repeat surgery within the first three years.


The message for women considering hip replacement surgery remains unclear. It's not known which models of hip implants perform best in women, even though women make up the majority of the more than 400,000 Americans who have full or partial hip replacements each year to ease the pain and loss of mobility caused by arthritis or injuries.


"This is the first step in what has to be a much longer-term research strategy to figure out why women have worse experiences," said Diana Zuckerman, president of the nonprofit National Research Center for Women & Families. "Research in this area could save billions of dollars" and prevent patients from experiencing the pain and inconvenience of surgeries to fix hip implants that go wrong.


Researchers looked at more than 35,000 surgeries at 46 hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente health system. The research, published Monday in JAMA Internal Medicine, was funded by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.


After an average of three years, 2.3 percent of the women and 1.9 percent of the men had undergone revision surgery to fix a problem with the original hip replacement. Problems included instability, infection, broken bones and loosening.


"There is an increased risk of failure in women compared to men," said lead author Maria Inacio, an epidemiologist at Southern California Permanente Medical Group in San Diego. "This is still a very small number of failures."


Women tend to have smaller joints and bones than men, and so they tend to need smaller artificial hips. Devices with smaller femoral heads — the ball-shaped part of the ball-and-socket joint in an artificial hip — are more likely to dislocate and require a surgical repair.


That explained some, but not all, of the difference between women and men in the study. It's not clear what else may have contributed to the gap. Co-author Dr. Monti Khatod, an orthopedic surgeon in Los Angeles, speculated that one factor may be a greater loss of bone density in women.


The failure of metal-on-metal hips was almost twice as high for women than in men. The once-popular models were promoted by manufacturers as being more durable than standard plastic or ceramic joints, but several high-profile recalls have led to a decrease in their use in recent years.


"Don't be fooled by hype about a new hip product," said Zuckerman, who wrote an accompanying commentary in the medical journal. "I would not choose the latest, greatest hip implant if I were a woman patient. ... At least if it's been for sale for a few years, there's more evidence for how well it's working."


___


Online:


Journal: http://www.jamainternalmed.com


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Japan stocks rally, yen resumes fall after G20

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese shares rallied and the yen fell on Monday after Tokyo escaped direct criticism from its G20 peers on its aggressive reflationary plans that have weakened the currency.


"With Japan, as yet, using various measures to ease monetary conditions domestically, we do not expect a large international backlash against its efforts and look for the JPY to continue to decline gradually as the easier monetary conditions feed through into FX," Barclays Capital said in a note to clients.


The G20 declined to single out Tokyo but committed to refrain from competitive devaluations and said monetary policy would be directed only at price stability and growth. Japan said this has given it a green light to pursue its policies unchecked.


Taking their cue from the G20, the Nikkei average <.n225> opened up 1.3 percent as the yen resumed its downtrend. <.t/>


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was nearly unchanged. The pan-Asian index briefly hit a 18-1/2-month high on Friday and had its best performance since the week of January 6 with a 1.2 percent weekly gain.


On Friday, MSCI's all-country world index <.miwd00000pus>, a measure of global equity activity, traded down 0.26 percent, while European shares closed lower and U.S. stocks ended flat.


Australian shares rose 0.3 percent as miners gained on hopes that top customer China might start buying after the Lunar New Year holidays, while blue chips Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Telstra Corp Ltd dropped after trading ex-dividend.


Markets in China and Taiwan resumed trading after a week-long holiday.


In Seoul, the Kospi <.ks11> opened down 0.1 percent, partly weighed by concerns over continued yen weakness that could erode the competitive edge of Korea's exporters.


"There is not much else to go on today except the currency, so everything depends on where the yen goes," said Toshiyuki Kanayama, senior market analyst at Monex.


The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 93.75 yen inching closer to its highest since May 2010 of 94.465 hit on February 11. The euro added 0.1 percent to 125.26 yen, still below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched on February 6.


The market's focus is now on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's nominee for the next Bank of Japan governor. Abe is expected to announce his choice in coming days.


Sources told Reuters that former top financial bureaucrat Toshiro Muto is leading the field of candidates to become the next central bank governor. It is expected that he would intensify stimulus efforts to reflate the economy.


STOCKS CONSOLIDATE


Data from EPFR Global on Friday underscored that a consolidation was underway in global equities after their recent rally. It showed investors worldwide pulled $3.62 billion from U.S. stock funds in the latest week, the most in ten weeks after taking a neutral stance the prior week. But demand for emerging market equities remained strong, with investors putting $1.81 billion in new cash to stock funds, the fund-tracking firm said.


Demand for commodities will likely be in focus as China returns to the market.


Investors are also expected to focus on fiscal talks in Washington, where policymakers are discussing a package of budget cuts set to kick in on March 1. Analysts say the austerity measures could hurt the U.S. economy.


U.S. crude fell 0.2 percent to $95.64 a barrel.


(Additional reporting by Sophie Knight in Tokyo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)



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Netanyahu Defends Israel’s Handling of Prisoner X Case





JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday defended his government’s handling of an Australian-Israeli who was held under a pseudonym for months in a maximum-security prison until he committed suicide in 2010, suggesting that the threats his country faces justify the extraordinary measures and the secrecy shrouding the case.




“We are not like other countries,” Mr. Netanyahu told his cabinet, in his first public comments on the case of Prisoner X, which made headlines on at least three continents last week. “We are an exemplary democracy and maintain the rights of those under investigation,” he said. “However, we are more threatened and face more challenges; therefore, we must maintain proper activity of our security agencies.”


In the face of growing calls from politicians and the public for investigations into the prisoner’s death and a court order that barred the local news media from reporting about it for more than two years, the prime minister said, “Let the security forces do their work quietly so that we can continue to live in security and tranquillity in the state of Israel.”


Prisoner X, the subject of Israeli news reports in 2010 that were quashed by the broad court order, was identified by an Australian television report last week as Ben Zygier, a 34-year-old lawyer and father of two who grew up in the Melbourne area, immigrated to Israel as a young man, served in the military and may have worked for the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. Arrested in February 2010, and held pending trial on charges that have been described only as serious and relating to national security, Mr. Zygier was considering a plea bargain when he apparently hanged himself with a shirt in the bathroom of his cell.


News reports here and in Australia have suggested that Israel detained him because he was about to reveal information about the Mossad’s use of foreign passports, and that he helped set up a Mossad front company in Europe that sold electronics equipment to Iran. A Kuwaiti report saying that he was involved in the 2010 assassination of a Hamas official in Dubai has been dismissed by several people with knowledge of the case.


An Israeli Justice Ministry investigation that declared Mr. Zygier’s death a suicide is expected to be released in the coming days, but several Israeli lawmakers and watchdog groups have demanded further inquiries by the attorney general and the state comptroller. And Australia’s foreign minister said Sunday that he had asked Israel to cooperate as he and his staff look into the matter.


“We want to give them an opportunity to submit to us an explanation of how this tragic death came about,” the minister, Bob Carr, told reporters in Sydney. “The key is to get all the information.”


Nahman Shai, a member of Parliament from the Labor Party, said Australia’s investigation should force Israel to look closer at the behavior of all involved. “We are witnessing oversights in various aspects of the case that include intelligence, legal, public, media and parliamentary,” Mr. Shai said Sunday. “The Australian government will publish the information it has and again make Israel appear irrelevant to the international community and the Israeli public.”


Two of Mr. Shai’s colleagues, meanwhile, called for the formation of a parliamentary committee to investigate the case. And many Israelis joined social-media campaigns that are demanding more information.


“No Israeli citizen will be able to sleep comfortably in a country in which an affair such as Prisoner X can take place,” wrote Uri Misgav, a blogger for the left-leaning newspaper Haaretz, in a lengthy post. “The Israeli public deserves to know whether the Israeli prisons are holding on to Prisoner Y and Prisoner Z,” he wrote. “The Israeli public deserves to be told how all of the monitoring mechanics failed and how such a systematic failure will not be repeated.”


But Mr. Netanyahu seemed untroubled by the affair. “I rely completely on the security forces,” he told the cabinet. “I also completely rely on the legal authorities.”


“The overexposure of security and intelligence activity could harm, sometimes severely, state security,” he added. “The security interest cannot be made light of, and in the reality in which the state of Israel lives, this must be a main interest.”


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Play puts Russian justice system in dock over lawyer’s death






MOSCOW (Reuters) – In a poorly lit basement theatre in central Moscow, actors play out a symbolic trial of Russia‘s justice system over its failure to protect an anti-corruption lawyer who died in custody.


Without costumes or a set, the actors in “One Hour and Eighteen Minutes” take on the roles of judges, an investigator, doctor and medical assistants, reciting lines cobbled together from legal documents, media and public pronouncements on the case of Sergei Magnitsky.






His death in 2009, while awaiting trial on charges of tax evasion and fraud, has outraged human rights campaigners who see it as an example of arbitrary justice in Russia, and contributed to a rift in U.S.-Russian relations.


A nervous giggle runs through the audience, perched on wooden chairs and benches, when an actor playing a judge says that the justice system is the only thing that is still working in Russia.


The audience is visibly taken aback when a second judge, who prolonged Magnitsky‘s detention four days before his death, dismisses accusations of acting inhumanly when she says the judge’s role is not to act like a human being but as an executor of the state’s authority.


“The most horrifying moment for me was this judge saying she is not a human because she is a judge. This is very frankly put and how things really are,” said Lyudmila Alexeyeva, a veteran Russian human rights campaigner.


“Nowadays, theatre based on documents, on real life here, is more telling and, unfortunately, more scary than thrillers.”


No one has been convicted over the death of Magnitsky, who was arrested after accusing Russian police of stealing $ 230 million from the state in 2007 through fraudulent tax refunds.


But Russia is now pressing ahead with plans to stage a posthumous trial of the lawyer, putting a dead man in the dock.


This prompted Mikhail Ugarov, the director of Teatr.doc, to revive a play first staged in 2010 because it seemed to him that true justice was now more distant than ever.


“In the very heart of Russia a man is killed, and not by thieves and bandits, but by doctors and prison workers, people who are in general obliged to safeguard the lives of those arrested,” Ugarov told Reuters.


“We used to think there would at least be some justice done, but it turned out completely the other way, it went horribly wrong. So our logic was that if they were not able to give justice to Magnitsky, we will instead.”


SEEKING JUSTICE


Rights campaigners and critics of President Vladimir Putin say the Russian judiciary is weak and open to abuse by politicians, and suggest that the Kremlin uses it to intimidate or persecute adversaries.


The Kremlin has repeatedly denied those accusations, saying the judiciary is completely independent and that the government does not intervene in legal cases.


“Judges are independent and subject only to the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the federal law,” the Russian Justice Ministry said in response to a request to comment on the play.


The Kremlin also denies that there has been a crackdown on dissenters since Putin returned to the presidency last May, facing the largest protests since he first rose to power 13 years ago.


Magnitsky’s prison death has, however, damaged Russia’s image and, for critics of the Kremlin, come to symbolize what they see as the impunity of the Russian authorities and the dangers faced by those who challenge them.


It has also resulted in a political spat with Washington. The United States, in response to Magnitsky’s treatment, passed legislation late last year that is designed to punish officials linked to his case as well as other Russians deemed rights violators.


Russia hit back with a law to punish Americans it suspects of similar abuses.


The play’s title, “One Hour and Eighteen Minutes”, alludes to the time just before Magnitsky died when he was left without medical help in his cell despite repeated complaints about his health deteriorating while in custody.


Putin said in December that Magnitsky died of a heart attack, but the head of the Kremlin’s own human rights council had earlier said he was probably beaten to death.


Putin called the death a tragedy but said the late lawyer, who had two sons, was not tortured.


All the defendants in the symbolic court in the play deny any responsibility, saying it was not their job to help Magnitsky, that they were busy with other cases, or were paid too poorly to care. Some suggest he was asking for trouble.


In the play, the first judge at a pre-trial hearing denies a glass of water to Magnitsky, saying such requests are not his concern.


Later on, an investigator involved in the case laughs with contempt at the lawyer’s repeated complaints about the conditions of Magnitsky’s detention and lack of medical care, saying a prison is not meant to be comfortable.


One actor exclaims ironically: “A dead man is good for being tried, and should be, just like someone who is alive – or is even better for being tried.”


(Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska, editing by Paul Casciato)


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See The Dress Only Jennifer Lopez Could Wear







Style News Now





02/15/2013 at 06:00 PM ET











Emmy Rossum, Jessica Alba, Jennifer LopezDave Allocca/Startraks; Amanda Edwards/WireImage; Jason LaVeris/FilmMagic


Judging by the red carpet looks seen at the Grammys and the creations sent down the runways at New York Fashion Week, we have a sneaking suspicion we’ll be spotting a lot more navy and a lot more menswear-inspired getups in the coming weeks. But there’s one style you can pretty much write off (and don’t expect to see much of it at the Oscars): Studio 54-esque dresses.



Up: Navy Instead of Black. The LBD and LWD better watch out: There’s another shade gunning for the spotlight. This week everyone from Emmy Rossum and Anne Hathaway to Oprah Winfrey and Miranda Lambert slipped into midnight blue. And we totally understand the appeal of the color. It’s a bit more interesting and unexpected than black, but equally flattering on all shapes and sizes.




Up: Menswear-Inspired Looks. Beyoncé wore a pantsuit to the Grammys and a number of other stars (including Jessica Alba, Julianne Hough and Solange Knowles) quickly followed, well, suit. We doubt that tons of actresses will forgo gowns for dude duds at the Oscars, but our money is on at least one woman in menswear on that red carpet.



Down: Disco Ball Dresses. They had their moment, but that moment seems to have passed. So, take a long look at Jennifer Lopez in her printed sequin Preen dress (sparkly enough to be hung from the ceiling over any dance floor) because as amazing as it is, the creation is probably the last you’ll see of its kind for some time.


For more on which trends to follow check out our thoughts on platforms, polka dots, and furry accents.


Tell us: Which trend do you hope to see more of? Vote in our poll below! 






PHOTOS: SEE OUR FAVORITE DRESSES OF AWARDS SEASON — SO FAR!




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UN warns risk of hepatitis E in S. Sudan grows


GENEVA (AP) — The United Nations says an outbreak of hepatitis E has killed 111 refugees in camps in South Sudan since July, and has become endemic in the region.


U.N. refugee agency spokesman Adrian Edwards says the influx of people to the camps from neighboring Sudan is believed to be one of the factors in the rapid spread of the contagious, life-threatening inflammatory viral disease of the liver.


Edwards said Friday that the camps have been hit by 6,017 cases of hepatitis E, which is spread through contaminated food and water.


He says the largest number of cases and suspected cases is in the Yusuf Batil camp in Upper Nile state, which houses 37,229 refugees fleeing fighting between rebels and the Sudanese government.


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G20 steps back from currency brink, heat off Japan


MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Group of 20 nations declared on Saturday there would be no currency war and deferred plans to set new debt-cutting targets, underlining broad concern about the fragile state of the world economy.


Japan's expansive policies, which have driven down the yen, escaped direct criticism in a statement thrashed out in Moscow by policymakers from the G20, which spans developed and emerging markets and accounts for 90 percent of the world economy.


Analysts said the yen, which has dropped 20 percent as a result of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to reflate the Japanese economy, may now continue to fall.


"The market will take the G20 statement as an approval for what it has been doing -- selling of the yen," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. "No censure of Japan means they will be off to the money printing presses."


After late-night talks, finance ministers and central bankers agreed on wording closer than expected to a joint statement issued last Tuesday by the Group of Seven rich nations backing market-determined exchange rates.


A draft communiqué on Friday had steered clear of the G7's call for economic policy not to be targeted at exchange rates. But the final version included a G20 commitment to refrain from competitive devaluations and stated monetary policy would be directed only at price stability and growth.


"The mood quite clearly early on was that we needed desperately to avoid protectionist measures ... that mood permeated quite quickly," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters, adding that the wording of the G20 statement had been hardened up by the ministers.


As a result, it reflected a substantial, but not complete, endorsement of Tuesday's proclamation by the G7 nations - the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Italy.


As with the G7 intervention, Tokyo said it gave it a green light to pursue its policies unchecked.


"I have explained that (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe's administration is doing its utmost to escape from deflation and we have gained a certain understanding," Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters.


"We're confident that if Japan revives its own economy that would certainly affect the world economy as well. We gained understanding on this point."


Flaherty admitted it would be difficult to gauge if domestic policies were aimed at weakening currencies or not.


NO FISCAL TARGETS


The G20 also made a commitment to a credible medium-term fiscal strategy, but stopped short of setting specific goals as most delegations felt any economic recovery was too fragile.


The communiqué said risks to the world economy had receded but growth remained too weak and unemployment too high.


"A sustained effort is required to continue building a stronger economic and monetary union in the euro area and to resolve uncertainties related to the fiscal situation in the United States and Japan, as well as to boost domestic sources of growth in surplus economies," it said.


A debt-cutting pact struck in Toronto in 2010 will expire this year if leaders fail to agree to extend it at a G20 summit of leaders in St Petersburg in September.


The United States says it is on track to meet its Toronto pledge but argues that the pace of future fiscal consolidation must not snuff out demand. Germany and others are pressing for another round of binding debt targets.


"We had a broad consensus in the G20 that we will stick to the commitment to fulfill the Toronto goals," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. "We do not have any interest in U.S.-bashing ... In St. Petersburg follow-up-goals will be decided."


The G20 put together a huge financial backstop to halt a market meltdown in 2009 but has failed to reach those heights since. At successive meetings, Germany has pressed the United States and others to do more to tackle their debts. Washington in turn has urged Berlin to do more to increase demand.


Backing in the communiqué for the use of domestic monetary policy to support economic recovery reflected the U.S. Federal Reserve's commitment to monetary stimulus through quantitative easing, or QE, to promote recovery and jobs.


QE entails large-scale bond buying -- $85 billion a month in the Fed's case -- that helps economic growth but has also unleashed destabilising capital flows into emerging markets.


A commitment to minimize such "negative spillovers" was an offsetting point in the text that China, fearful of asset bubbles and lost export competitiveness, highlighted.


"Major developed nations (should) pay attention to their monetary policy spillover," Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao was quoted by state news agency Xinhua as saying in Moscow.


Russia, this year's chair of the G20, admitted the group had failed to reach agreement on medium-term budget deficit levels and expressed concern about ultra-loose policies that it and other emerging economies say could store up trouble for later.


On currencies, the G20 text reiterated its commitment last November, "to move more rapidly toward mores market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments".


It said disorderly exchange rate movements and excess volatility in financial flows could harm economic and financial stability.


(Additional reporting by Gernot Heller, Lesley Wroughton, Maya Dyakina, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Jan Strupczewski, Lidia Kelly, Katya Golubkova, Jason Bush, Anirban Nag and Michael Martina. Writing by Douglas Busvine. Editing by Timothy Heritage/Mike Peacock)



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Karzai to Forbid His Forces to Request Foreign Airstrikes





KABUL, Afghanistan — President Hamid Karzai said Saturday that he would issue a decree forbidding his military forces from turning to NATO or American forces to conduct airstrikes, and he condemned the use of torture on detainees by his security forces.




He made his comments in a speech at the Afghan National Military Academy in Kabul. It was the first time he had dwelt at such length and with such passion on human rights.


His proposed ban on Afghan troops from calling in airstrikes came after a joint Afghan-NATO attack last week in Kunar Province, in eastern Afghanistan, that killed four women, one man and five children, all of them civilians, according to local officials.


Mr. Karzai said Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the commander of the international coalition forces fighting the Taliban and other insurgents in Afghanistan, told him that the airstrike had been requested by the National Directorate of Security, the country’s intelligence service. The attack took place in the Shigal district, an area where two known Taliban commanders were visiting family members, Afghan officials have said.


“Our N.D.S. in their own country calls foreigners to assist them and bombard four or five Al Qaeda or Taliban,” Mr. Karzai said.


“It is very regrettable to hear this,” he added. “You are representing Afghan pride. How do you call for an airstrike from foreigners on your people?”


Civilian casualties in the war on the Taliban has long vexed Mr. Karzai and has been a major point of contention with American and NATO troops. New rules instituted by commanders from the International Security Assistance Force have minimized the loss of life, and the coalition has all but stopped air attacks on populated areas and on homes. The result has been a dramatic drop in civilian casualties caused by foreign forces.


Nevertheless, Afghan troops, who lack their own air support, still turn to foreign forces for help during pitched battles with the Taliban and other insurgents. It was not clear whether there would be exceptions to Mr. Karzai’s decree, but he was clearly dismayed that his own forces would be employing the very techniques he had worked so hard to persuade the West to abandon.


In an unusual move, the Afghan president also publicly acknowledged that torture was a problem in Afghan detention centers and pledged to halt it. In the past, the government has largely deflected charges of torture raised by human rights organizations, contending that any abuse was the work of a few bad actors.


But after a United Nations report released in January detailed abuses or torture at a number of detention sites around the country, Mr. Karzai took a closer and more independent look at the complaints.


He appointed a delegation to investigate the report’s validity, and when the inquiry confirmed many of the allegations, he ordered the security ministries to implement the team’s recommendations. He reiterated that order on Saturday. The recommendations include prosecuting perpetrators of torture, giving detainees access to defense lawyers, providing medical treatment for detainees who are ill or have been beaten, and videotaping all interrogations.


“Not only have foreigners tormented and punished Afghans, but our people have been terrorized and punished by our own sons too,” Mr. Karzai said. “The U.N. report showed that even after 10 years, our people are tortured and mistreated in prisons.”


The United Nations’ human rights office here emphasized the importance of Mr. Karzai’s attention to the issue.


“It is encouraging that the president appears to be personally taking the issue of human rights of all Afghans seriously,” said Georgette Gagnon, the office’s director of human rights. She added that the government should act immediately on the delegation’s recommendations. “We urge them to do so without delay,” she said.


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BlackBerry Z10 not seen as a success, BlackBerry’s services business again called into question






BlackBerry (BBRY) shares continued down on Thursday morning after a research note from Wednesday evening called the company’s comeback prospects into question once again. In a note to investors picked up by Barron’s, National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson cut his revenue and profit forecast for BlackBerry’s upcoming fiscal year while casting doubt on its prospects with the BlackBerry Z10 in light of what he calls a delayed U.S. launch.


[More from BGR: Huge iPhone security vulnerability discovered in iOS 6.1 [video]]






“For the record, we like the Z10. It’s a great upgrade for BlackBerry subscribers,” Thompson wrote. “But we don’t see the product reversing BlackBerry’s market share decline; only providing a short-term stabilization from BB6/7 upgrades. We do not expect the platform to win over many iOS or Android users. The apps just aren’t there; and apps are not moving to the web browser soon enough to fill this void.”


[More from BGR: Samsung reportedly plans to sell 100M Galaxy S IV phones, could pull resources away from Apple]


He continued, “Z10 product launch delay an ominous sign. The bulls will say that the Z10 launched in Canada and the UK first because those are very loyal bases, production runs couldn’t support the U.S. launch, or kinks can be worked out ahead of the U.S. launch. We’d say the U.S. carriers have enough smartphones that they test new ones to their own drum beat and aren’t too interested in paying the monthly BlackBerry subscriber fee.”


Elaborating on his comment regarding BlackBerry’s services business, Thompson went on to paint a dark picture of BlackBerry’s earnings moving forward.


“The product delays do not have a major impact on our estimates (although sell-through may be worse than expected given the multitude of competing devices that will now launch at the same time),” he wrote. “Our prelim F2015 estimates suggest earnings will worsen as the high-margin service revenue is subject to a significant decline as the install base dumps BB7 (and predecessor) handsets and adopt BB10 handsets.”


Thompson noted that since BlackBerry executives have not been forthcoming with details surrounding BlackBerry 10 service fees or legacy fee concessions considering carriers will likely no longer pay fees for non-enterprise users, National Bank Financial has had to make some assumptions.


“Many BB10 users will not pay a monthly fee – we have assumed consumer BB10 subs pay nothing and enterprise (BES10) subs pay $ 3/month (less than half of historical, which is a guess… data plans need to be re-negotiated because the BB10 devices require more data since, for instance, the browser no longer compresses data, which was a major drag on browser performance),” the analyst wrote.


Thompson reiterated his Underperform rating on BlackBerry shares along with his $ 10 price target.


This article was originally published on BGR.com


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